Natisha Hiedeman
Pay Her What You Owe Her
This is the second installment of my player deep dive series, Pay Her What You Owe Her in which I essentially put together a propaganda piece for a player I think is underrated and underpaid. Though as Reddit user kazzin8 noted:
If you missed the first article on Veronica Burton that kazzin8 is referring to, go ahead and check it out! She has proven out everything I wrote and more, winning the Most Improved Player award and even getting a vote for MVP.
As I mentioned last time, if you happen to be a scout or an agent reading this, I’d be happy to put together an analytics package for you and your players.
6POY
Natisha Hiedeman was my pick for Sixth Player of the Year.1 I mean that with no disrespect to the actual 6POY winner Naz Hillmon - she had a terrific season and, as we will see, was close to Hiedeman in many important statistical categories this year. But Hillmon isn’t a sixth player.
Sure Naz began the season coming off the bench, but she earned her way into a starting role midway through, and started the last 20 games of the year for the Dream, including all three in the playoffs. That’s a record high number of games started by a 6POY award winner, and at nearly 40%, is the highest percentage of games started since Jonquel Jones won the award in 2018 (another questionable choice).
Getting even more exact with the terminology of the award (if potentially further away from the spirit of it), Hillmon was not the sixth best player on the Dream. She was fifth in points, second in rebounds, fourth in assists and blocks, and (ok fine) sixth in steals. Based on Neil Paine’s player rankings, Hillmon was solidly the fourth or fifth best player on her team. You know who was the sixth best player on her team? Natisha Hiedeman.
The Green Bay, Wisconsin native2 played all 44 Lynx games this season, 0 as a starter. Whenever she entered the game, she provided the exact boost off the bench that sixth players are meant to - she brought the perfect blend of energy and fresh legs with a stabilizing calmness that organized her teammates.
Hiedeman often subbed in for her StudBudz co-host (more on this later), the Lynx’s All-Star starting Point Guard, Courtney Williams. With at least one of Williams and Hiedeman on the floor, the Lynx never had to play without a high-level floor general: there were a grand total of 5 minutes all season when both Hiedeman and Williams were on the bench, all when the game was out of reach one way or the other.
The Lynx were the best team all season with the best (non-A’ja Wilson) players in the league on both sides of the ball. Great players like Napheesa Collier (MVP-runner up) and Alanna Smith (co-Defensive Player of the Year) can elevate the teammates they play alongside, by drawing more of the defensive focus or just making really good plays to get others involved. But Hiedeman didn’t really play with them all that much.
Visually, note how most of Hiedeman’s on-court minutes came toward the end of the first and third quarters when the Lynx starting five was taking a breather. Most of her playing time was alongside other Lynx subs like Jessica Shepard, DiJonai Carrington, and Maria Kliundikova.3
By the numbers, 120 of Hiedeman’s minutes (~15% of her total playing time) came with none of the Lynx’s non-Point Guard starting four (Collier, Smith, Kayla McBride, and Bridget Carleton) on the court. Less than half of Hiedeman’s minutes were spent sharing the court with Phee, who still noted Hiedeman’s impact:
“To me the bench is actually the strongest part of a team,” Napheesa Collier said. “Because the things that they give you, like the different change of pace, or Jess with the rebounds, T [Hiedeman] getting downhill, Nai [Carrington] with her aggressiveness, whatever it is, the way that we’re able to not have that drop off when the bench comes in.”
In those 120 minutes Hiedeman played without another starter, the Lynx subs outscored opponents by 24 points per 100 possessions. Not too bad a drop off at all.
What makes Hiedeman so effective off the bench? She doesn’t need much to make an impact.
Give Her an Inch, She’ll Take a Mile
Hiedeman played an average of 19 minutes per game during the regular season. Compare that to Hillmon who, in addition to starting nearly half her games, got 26 minutes of playing time per game. We’ll need a way to standardize their impact for time on the court, and differences in pace between teams, which we can do with per 100 possession stats.4 Here’s how Hiedeman stacks up:5
Points: First amongst non-starters (well ahead of Hillmon) and 23rd in the entire league. That’s tied with Alyssa Thomas, and sandwiched between players like Sonia Citron, Rickea Jackson, Bri Jones, and Skylar Diggins.
Assists: First among non-starters; 12th overall right next to Paige Bueckers.
Steals: You guessed it, first among non-starters. I’ll spare you the long table.
Now, Hiedeman isn’t much of a rebounder, and isn’t known for her defense, partly because she’s only 5 feet 8 inches tall! She was one of only eight players 5’8” or shorter to play at least 800 minutes this season, and had the biggest impact on winning6 amongst those short queens.
What’s especially amazing about Hiedeman’s play as an undersized Guard is her ability to get in the paint, to the bucket, and finish. As Jonah Maves noted in his own 6POY case for Hiedeman, “it was bold for 5’8” Hiedeman to rely on a shot diet of more two-point field-goals than efficient three-point field-goals.”
She had a career average three-point attempt rate (3PAr) of 58% with the Sun. Since arriving in Minnesota, Hiedeman has averaged just 2.5 3PA per game, with a 3PAr of 41% — a big change from her peak playing years in Connecticut.
It’s working. She made 73% of her attempts at the rim this season,7 and shot 58% overall on two-point shots. That’s the fourth best two-point conversion rate ever for players her height or shorter, only behind Julie Allemand this season, Becky Hammon in 2000, and Natisha’s nickname twin, the original T-Spoon, Teresa Weatherspoon in 1997.
Hiedeman can still make threes when she wants to take them. She shot 37% (38% if you take out those two heaves on the shot chart above) from behind the arc this season. Combined with her efficiency from two, that gives her an effective field goal percentage of 57%, seventh in the entire WNBA. Every player above her on that list is a Forward or Center. Hiedeman is first amongst Guards in eFG%, a full two percentage points better than second place Sonia Citron.
Not bad for a 5’8”, 18th overall pick off the bench.
Wins on the Cheap
With all of her production comes a whole lot of winning. Hiedeman has benefitted from being on the best team in the league this season, but for her career her teams have gone 163-61 (73% winning percentage). The seventh year pro hasn’t experienced a losing season since her rookie year at Marquette.8 She is a consummate pro who knows how to get the best out of herself and her teammates, and translate that into great seasons, something every team would love to have in their corner.
This year, Hiedeman has gotten better and better as the season marched along and the wins mattered that much more to ensure the Lynx went into the Playoffs with momentum. Her best stretch came earlier this month, when she scored 20+ in three straight games and even recorded a double-double.
Now to the economics. Hiedeman is on a one-year contract with the Lynx making $135,000. That’s mid-level,9 and notably twice Naz Hillmon’s $66k contract (she’s earned herself a nice raise). But even at the mid-level, Hiedeman is still eighth in the league in win share rate per dollar. There are only three players who make more than Hiedeman while producing more win shares per dollar, and they just finished first, second, and fourth in MVP voting.
Now, if you’re going to pay a player much more you’ll probably want her to play more minutes, and be there to start and finish games. Hiedeman can do that too. While she’s excelled off the bench this year, Hiedeman has proven she can take on whatever role her team needs her to play. She started every game for the very good 2023 Connecticut Sun who finished third in the WNBA, and at just 28 years old, Hiedeman is still in her prime.
The two seasons most statistically similar to Hiedeman’s 2025 are Chelsea Gray in 2017 season and Marie Ferdinand-Harris in 2001. Both were All-Stars in those years, just kicking off multi-year runs of being amongst the best Point Guards in the league. I would not be surprised to see many more seasons of production out of Natisha Hiedeman.
StudBudz
I can’t write a whole post about Natisha Hiedeman without mentioning StudBudz. Hiedeman is of course one half of the StudBudz, along with her twin, bestie, and fellow Lynx Point Guard Courtney Williams. Slam did a great interview with the duo, explaining the origin and vibes of StudBudz:
We’ve seen players carve out their own paths through tough breakaways, deep range and lockdown defense. But it’s rare to see someone create a lane beyond the lines of the court. A lane that’s never been driven before. One that takes boldness, creativity and a fearless mindset behind the wheel.
Enter Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman, better known as the “StudBudz,” the duo that flipped the script and created a new wave in the social space. They’ve blended their on-court skills with their off-court personalities to give fans an authentic, behind-the-scenes look at themselves and the League’s brightest stars.
Even with everything they do on the court, Williams and Hiedeman may be doing even more off of with their work driving inclusion and representation in women’s basketball. They are “two Black, masculine women” being “unapologetically themselves”, which happens to be remarkably likable and entertaining. They’re using their stage to empower all women, whether that’s those who are more masculine, baddies, mothers, or athletes playing on their periods. Hiedeman is a great player on the court, and a great person off of it.
So pay T what you owe her, but also, keep the StudBudz together.
Award her what you owe her?
Go Pack!
All good players in their own right, but not on the same level as the Lynx starters.
This still ignores the fact that it’s often easier for players to get into a rhythm when they start and play more minutes, which makes Hiedeman’s performances even more impressive.
Among players with at least 800 minutes played in the regular season (~18 minutes per game).
First in win shares per 48 minutes.
As I was writing this, watching Lynx-Mercury Game 1, the color announcer Rebecca Lobo said of Hiedeman, “It’s tough when she gets in the paint, but the wide open three is her game”. Uh no. Don’t listen to Rebecca Lobo.
Excluding the Covid-shortened 2020 WNBA season.
And yet, ridiculously low compared to other pro leagues.
100% agree. As a Valkyries fan I can attest to her being an absolute Valkyries killer this season. She’s smart, quick and a sniper from 3. Everytime she came off the bench it was bad news for the Valks.