Veronica Burton

Pay Her What You Owe Her

This is a new segment I’ll be running every so often where I do a deep dive into a player. Specifically, as you’ll see, I’ll look into on-court play compared to contract terms and let you know how they stack up to their peers. Let me know which players you want me to cover next! If you happen to be a scout or an agent reading this I’d be happy to work together to put together an analytics package for you.

The first choice for this segment was easy: Veronica Burton, Point Guard for the upstart Golden State Valkyries.

Burton is a fourth year player on a one-year contract with GSV, making $78,831. Two observations:

1. That is ridiculously low compared to the NBA,¹ where the absolute minimum contract is north of $1,000,000. That’s what this is all about:

   

   WNBA All-Stars wear shirts saying "Pay Us What You Owe Us" prior to the 2025 All-Star Game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on July 19, 2025 (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

2. That is low even for the WNBA, and is incredible value for the Valkyries. Burton has the 86th highest salary (average annual value) in the WNBA, but by some advanced stats is the 7th most valuable player:

Veronica Burton is set to become a restricted free agent at the end of the year, and should receive plenty of offer sheets from interested teams (which I personally hope the Valkyries match to keep her in the Bay). I would expect Burton’s salary to more than double next year, and maybe approach $170-200k in average annual value. Her all-time closest player comp, statistically, is 2022 Courtney Vandersloot, who made $195k that year. This season, Burton’s output is most similar to Natasha Cloud’s, who is on contract for $200k with the Liberty.

Staying in 2025, here are the players around Burton’s production and salary. She, uh, stands out:

Sure these players have proved their value over a longer-time frame, while Burton has exploded onto the scene with career highs in every meaningful stat² this season given more opportunity on an expansion team. But, watching her game, I think she’s unlocked a new level of confidence and play that will stick.

So why is Burton ranked so highly in RAPTOR, as well as other “all-in-one” stats like Offensive Rating (6th in the WNBA), Net Rating (11th), and Win Shares / 48 (10th)? Here are some of the selling points I think Burton’s agents should use in explaining her impact on winning:³

Elite Passer

The Valkyries’ offense runs through Veronica Burton. Literally. Here is the team’s (messy) assist network⁴ which shows where passes go to and from. Burton is that light blue dot right in the center of it all.

She is posting an assist percentage of 33%, meaning when she is on the floor a full one-third of the field goals made by her teammates come off her passes. That is third best in the entire league,⁵ only behind Alyssa Thomas (an MVP candidate) and Courtney Williams (who has the advantage of passing to the MVP front runner, Napheesa Collier). In absolute terms, that works out to 5.3 assists per game or 9.6 per 100 possessions, which is fourth in the W. And that’s despite passing to teammates who collectively score the fourth least points per game on the second-to-last FG% and 3P%. Surround her with better catch-and-shoot players, and her assist numbers will only go up.

Actually, surround catch-and-shoot players with more Veronica Burton, and their shooting numbers go up. When Burton is on the floor, the Valkyries take more three pointers and make them at a higher clip than when she is resting on the bench.

Amazingly, despite the number of passes she makes, Burton averages just under two turnovers per game. That ranks her 13th in the W in turnover percentage, and third in assist : turnover ratio, only trailing the $200k woman Natasha Cloud and Bridget Carleton in Minnesota (on a much lower base of assists).

Efficient Scorer

Burton is a pass-first Point Guard (third in assist to usage ratio), but she can still score the ball - she just chooses her spots judiciously to maximize efficiency. She’s taken 276 shots this year, and almost all of them have come from a. free throws (33%), b. the paint (34%), or c. three point range (33%). Those are the three most efficient shots in basketball.

She’s 20th in three point percentage in the league (35%) on four attempts per game, which puts her in the same company as someone like Ariel Atkins, and above Natasha Cloud or Napheesa Collier. And she can create her own shot, with 45% of her made field goals unassisted.

But her real scoring skill comes from free throws. She draws fouls at the 12th fastest rate in the league and connects on 87% of them, good for 13th best. For her career she’s 89% from the charity stripe, and it actually took until her second season for her to miss one at all - she went a perfect 32/32 as a rookie.

Defensive Warrior Valkyrie

Burton was a three-time All-Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year in college, and she’s brought that defensive tenacity to the W. She does it all on both ends, organizing the offense and often guarding the opposing team’s best perimeter player. Neil Paine has her as the seventh best defender in the league by RAPTOR,⁶ a stat that aims to estimate how much a player contributes to their team in terms of points per 100 possessions using a bunch of stats and linear regressions.

While it’s hard to say exactly what drives that ranking, I can tell you that 4% of opponent possessions end in a steal or block when she is on the floor, and she is responsible for over 20% of those. That’s similar defensive prowess to Angel Reese or Satou Sabally.

All-Star in her Role

Finally, Veronica Burton is just always there. She has played in every game so far this season, at 29 minutes per game, second on the team. She doesn’t need to dominate the ball (her 19% usage rate is just 12th on the team), instead creating for others. The Valkyries are ~6 points per 100 possessions better when she is on the court vs off, with better shot making, passing, and rebounding.

In the closing minutes of the Wings game earlier this week, the Valkyries announcer noted Burton was having a great game, and then seemed to realize mid-sentence that she hadn’t made a field goal. But the statement stood. Veronica Burton can score, but she does so much more that I’d argue she is the engine that makes everything work for the Valkyries, and a major reason why they are surprising everyone this year.

Burton has surprised some people as well, upping her rate and efficiency stats across the board, while doubling her minutes from the first three years of her career. In a contract year, Burton has earned what should be a nice pay raise.

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1. Or even many of Burton’s Northwestern classmates who went into consulting or investment banking.

2. She could not score again this season and still double her previous PPG career high.

3. All data used for this article is prior to the All-Star break and comes from Spotrac, Stathead/Basketball Reference, Neil Paine, PBP Stats, WNBA.com, and/or the wehoop R package.

4. Credit PBP stats

5. Minimum 500 minutes played (~25 minutes per game for 20 games).

6. Again, minimum 500 minutes.