The Atlanta Dream sent three representatives to the All-Star game in Chicago last week; there’s an argument that their most impactful player didn’t get the invite. In fact, despite being, statistically, the second best player in the entire WNBA, she didn’t even place in the top 40 in the All-Star fan vote. She doesn’t have the shine of some of her teammates, with a naturally less outgoing personality than, oh say, Angel Reese. She’s barely been mentioned in the national media, but we have to talk more about Jordin Canada.
Canada1 is in her ninth year in the WNBA, on her third team in Atlanta. She’s won two championships, has led the league in steals twice, and yet consistently flies under the radar. She hasn’t traditionally lit up the box score (that’s changing this season), but what she is good at she is elite at. And the things she is elite at are the exact things that matter most in winning basketball games in the modern WNBA.
Playmaking
Jordin Canada sits at the center of the Atlanta Dream’s offense - literally.
The network of lines and nodes above is Atlanta’s assist network, courtesy of pbp stats. It shows the flow of assists on the team - who finds who2 for made baskets - with thicker lines representing more assists. Here are the Dream’s top five assist pairings this season:
Jordin Canada to Allisha Gray (63 times3)
Jordin Canada to Rhyne Howard (41 times)
Jordin Canada to Angel Reese (36 times)
Jordin Canada to Naz Hillmon (22 times)
Angel Reese to Allisha Gray (21 times)
Jordin Canada’s assists have led to a total of 475 points this season; add in the 303 she’s scored herself, and she’s been “responsible” for 787 points. That’s a full 1/3 of the Dream’s 2,373 points. It’s 140 more than Allisha Gray. 150 more than Rhyne Howard. 250 more than Angel Reese. The Dream offense simply does not work without Jordin Canada running the show.
And that’s just the start. Most Point Guards with high assist volumes also tend to turn the ball over a lot. Take Alyssa Thomas and Caitlin Clark. They are currently first and second on the assist leaderboard . . . and first and second in turnovers. Jordin Canada has the third most assists, and just the 25th most turnovers!4
While she’s never been a high turnover player, taking even better care of the ball while taking on more of the playmaking burden was a big offseason focus for Canada. When asked about it she commented,
“That actually was one of my goals this year that we set to lead the league in assist-to-turnover ratio . . . this year was the focus of just making the right play every single possession, and I mean it’s working out so far, so I just want to continue doing what I’ve been doing.”
It’s definitely working out so far. Canada is averaging 3.4 assists for every turnover, easily best in the league. In fact, it’s the third best mark in league history.5 The only two players with better assist-to-turnover ratios are the two best Point Guards of all time: Courtney Vandersloot in the Covid-shortened 2020 season (10 assists to 2.5 turnovers) and Sue Bird6 in 2018 (7.1 assists to 1.9 turnovers)
Forcing Turnovers
Not only does Canada rarely turn the ball over on offense, she is one of the best in the game at taking the ball back on defense. She’s averaging 2.2 steals (perfectly matching her 2.2 turnovers per game), second in the entire league, only behind her teammate Rhyne Howard (2.4 steals per game). By steal percentage,7 Canada matches Howard (3.4%), as well as the Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner, Gabby Williams.8
There are different ways to be credited with a steal; the easiest is to simply be “in the right place at the right time” when an opposing player makes an errant pass or the ball is getting batted around. I watched all of Canada’s steals9 from before the All-Star break, and can say that only about a quarter of them came in these instances (and even then, she often gets to that “right place” strategically and by out-hustling everyone else on the court10).
Another 15% of her steals happen after she deflects the ball and a teammate recovers it. The majority, though, are the result of her simply taking the ball away from her assignment, the way I snatch a chew toy away from my dog. She has 16 straight-up strips and 16 pass interceptions.11
She’ll take the ball from anyone: she has three steals each from All-Star Centers A’ja Wilson and Dominique Malonga, as well as Guards Caitlin Clark and Veronica Burton.
Importantly, all but one of her steals this season has been “live”. Steals are super valuable - an infamous 538 study estimated their worth at nine points;12 a more recent, WNBA-specific analysis concluded four - and live-ball steals are even more so. Not only do they ensure the opponent gets zero points on their possession, they also don’t give them a chance to set their defense, leading to fast-break opportunities for the thief’s team.
Jordin Canada is very good at turning those live-ball opportunities into points. By my count of the play by play data, Canada’s 56 steals have generated 23 layups, as well as an additional four shooting fouls, translating to 52 easy points for her Dream team.
A few of those points have been Jordin Canada taking it all the way to the rim herself, but most have actually been Canada setting up her teammates, which helps explain why Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard are first and second in the entire WNBA in fast break points.
Jordin Canada is still able to get more than her fair share of easy shots in the paint as well.
Painting
Canada’s Head Coach in Atlanta, Karl Smesko, is one of the most analytically minded coaches in the WNBA. In the early days of the season, I noted that he had his team taking a whopping 38% of its field goal attempts from within three feet of the basket. That’s cooled off a bit, but the Dream’s Moreyball rate still leads the league, handily, at 72%. Jordin Canada’s shot chart fits right in.
She has made 85 two-point field goals so far this season; exactly one of them came outside of the paint, and it was basically a free throw. That puts her in the 90th percentile for paint shots per Her Hoop Stats, while not even qualifying for the midrange leaderboard. Karl Smesko’s dream Point Guard.
Canada’s float and fadeaway games have gotten much better this season, and she’s seeing the results in improved efficiency, up to 49.6% effective field goal percentage, the best of her nearly decade-long career. She’s also been able to draw lots of fouls, 3.9 per game to be exact, 12th most among WNBA Guards.
Despite the efficiency, Canada doesn’t put up the gaudy scoring numbers that attract All-Star votes. She is “only” averaging about 12 points per game, because she doesn’t look to score that often. She only takes a shot every three-and-half minutes on average. Her usage is eighth on the Dream’s roster.
While she sets up everyone else with dimes, the majority of her points come individually. Over 80% of her made two-point field goals are unassisted, on-par with Olivia Miles and putting her in the 98th percentile - among the best of the best - in self-creation.
Based just on what I’ve told you so far, you would probably imagine Jordin Canada as an over-sized Guard, maybe with a similar frame to her Atlanta backcourt mate Rhyne Howard. After all, she’s gotta be tall to see over the defenders and find her teammates for assists, right? She’s gotta be big to get into the paint and draw fouls, right?
Jordin Canada is 5’6”, 135 lbs. She is the single smallest player in the WNBA.
Which makes the next point even crazier.
All-Time Rebounding
Jordin Canada is better than 85% of players in the WNBA, every single one of whom is bigger than her, at rebounding.
She’s averaging 3.6 rebounds per game so far, the most by a player 5’6” or shorter in 24 years!
There are six players who have played at least a few minutes in the WNBA this season listed at 5’6” or shorter. Jordin Canada has as many or more points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks as the other five combined.
Pay Here What You Owe Her
All in all, the advanced stats love Jordin Canada. Neil Paine’s LAKER ratings have her second in the entire WNBA,13 only behind the GOAT, A’ja Wilson. She sports a +10 net rating, and every one of Atlanta’s top-five best two-woman pairings feature Jordin Canada.14 Atlanta’s best five-woman unit (obviously including Canada) is the best in the entire league. She’s also Atlanta’s clutchest player, with a +2.4 net rating in the waning minutes of close games.
And yet, she gets paid $650,000 per year, 50th in the league. Her contract is worth about half as much as Allisha Gray’s or Rhyne Howard’s and even $200,000 less than Naz Hillmon’s. Per dollar, Jordin Canada provides the third most value in the entire WNBA.
Canada fits in wonderfully with Karl Smesko’s vision in Atlanta (where she is under contract through next season), but you best believe she would make any team better. So pay her what you owe her, WNBA.
Confusingly, she is not from Canada.
Whom? I never know.
This is the second most assists from one player to another in the league, only behind Jackie Young’s ridiculous 92 assists to A’ja Wilson.
You may notice Veronica Burton here, and remember that I noted her impressive assist-to-turnover ratio last year. Canada’s most similar player, according to ESPN at least, happens to be Burton. I apparently have a PHWYOH type.
Minimum five assists per game.
Who Jordin Canada started her career backing up in Seattle.
An estimate of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal by the player while she was on the floor.
Well, 53 of the 56 that have video on the WNBA site.
The WNBA doesn’t make its “hustle” stats available on their site, but ESPN’s Net Points has a catch all stat for “Misc Defense”; Jordin Canada is in the 88th percentile.
Which are more akin to when I play monkey in the middle with my wife and dog.
If that were literally true, Jordin Canada would be responsible for over 50% of the Dream’s points through her assists, points, and steals.
Eighth on offense, fifth on defense.
In order of net rating they are Canada with Allisha Gray, Angel Reese, Isobel Borlase, Rhyne Howard, and Naz Hillmon.
This was a fantastic piece! Full of really interesting fun facts and insights. One of the best WNBA pieces I've read all season. I am biased as in Atlanta Dream fan. But still. Thanks for putting in the hard work and research into this!
Nice to learn about an unsung hero. I am now more interested in watching her developments.